Monday, February 25, 2008

My prediction

I predict Hillary will drop out of the race within the next 9 days (one day after the Texas and Ohio primaries.)

What do you think? Shall we make a game of it and the winner gets a prize?

Hillary Should Get Out Now
by Jonathan Alter
Newsweek Mar 3, 2008 issue

If Hillary Clinton wanted a graceful exit, she'd drop out now—before the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries—and endorse Barack Obama. This would be terrible for people like me who have been dreaming of a brokered convention for decades. For selfish reasons, I want the story to stay compelling for as long as possible, which means I'm hoping for a battle into June for every last delegate and a bloody floor fight in late August in Denver. But to withdraw this week would be the best thing imaginable for Hillary's political career. She won't, of course, and for reasons that help explain why she's in so much trouble in the first place.

Withdrawing would be stupid if Hillary had a reasonable chance to win the nomination, but she doesn't. To win, she would have to do more than reverse the tide in Texas and Ohio, where polls show Obama already even or closing fast. She would have to hold off his surge, then establish her own powerful momentum within three or four days. Without a victory of 20 points or more in both states, the delegate math is forbidding. In Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22, the Clinton campaign did not even file full delegate slates. That's how sure they were of putting Obama away on Super Tuesday.



PoliShifter said...

Hi Lizzy,

I am not so optimistic. Both Hillary and McCain are now double teaming Obama. The right wing is ramping up their 'Obama is a Muslim' campaign. Hillary's campaign is circulating images of Obama in traditional Muslim Somali garb.

Vast emailings are re-circulating that Obama doesn't put his hand over his heart when saying the pledge of allegiance, or that he doesn't wear a flag lapel pin.

It's all just part of the preparation to take him down. I think Hillary is going to throw everything she's got against Obama.

I expect her in the debate to go into full attack mode.

The question is for me, if Obama can overcome it. We will find out soon enough.

1138 said...

If Obama can just prod her into repeating the "Celestial Choir" rant then it's all over for her.
There has been a serious disconnect between Hillary on the road and Hillary at the debates - I don't think the public is going to accept a newly "aggressive" 'stay at home bake cookies' Hillary tonight.
I think she's destroyed her run for 08, now I just hope she has the good sense not to do damage to the party and the party's candidate, while she miserably goes under.

New phrase for the Millennium - "Obama Republicans"

Hillary can't do that

Lizzy said...

I don't think any of that will stick, Poli. My prediction stands.
8 days now....

1138, I agree, and that is why she should take Jonathan Alter's queue, and drop out now. It's the best thing to do for the party.

Candace said...

Lizzy, I hope you're right, but I just don't see the Clintons having that much class.